What Does Jeff Flake's Vote Mean? Brett Kavanaugh Is Still in the Running, For Now
What Does Jeff Flake's Vote Mean? Brett Kavanaugh Is Still in the Running, For Now
If you were tuned into the Judiciary Committee hearing on Friday afternoon, you may have witnessed a confusing moment:...
If you were tuned into the Judiciary Committee hearing on Friday afternoon, you may have witnessed a confusing moment: Hours after Senator Jeff Flake, an Arizona Republican, announced in a statement that he would vote to confirm Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, he showed up late to the vote and then asked for a delay on the Senate floor vote, pending an FBI investigation. A quick vote along the roll call occurred...and then the hearing was abruptly adjourned.
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The Fed, Full Employment, African-Americans, and an Event that Brings It All Together
Jared Bernstein Blog - March 3, 2015 - As a tireless (some would say tiresome) advocate for full employment and the...
Jared Bernstein Blog - March 3, 2015 - As a tireless (some would say tiresome) advocate for full employment and the benefits it yields for working people, you can imagine how I was thrown by this NYT headline over a piece by economics reporter Bin Appelbaum:
Black jobless rates remain high, but Fed can’t do much to help.
“Shots fired!” as the kids say.
I find this hard to believe in the following sense. Black unemployment has averaged almost twice that of overall unemployment since the monthly data begin in 1972 (avg: 1.9, with standard deviation of 0.15, so not a ton of variation around that mean). Crudely, that implies that if overall unemployment fell from 6% to 5%, the black rate might fall more in percentage point terms, from 12% to 10%.
Next, if the Fed can push down the overall unemployment rate, which is certainly within its purview and, at a time like this, its job description, then the headline seems off.
Now, there are important nuances in play here.
First, these relationships are not always so clean. Over the long, strong recovery of the 1990s, black unemployment fell 4.5 points compared to 2.1 points for whites (and 2.5 points overall). Over the 1980s recovery, black unemployment—which was about 20% at the end of the deep early 1980s recession—fell 8.5 points compared to 4.7 for whites.
Those comparatively big declines show the disproportionate benefits that blacks reap from lower unemployment and, conditional on the Fed’s ability to lower unemployment, they belie the NYT headline. I could make similar claims based on wages and incomes, but I’m bound by secrecy for now (more on that in a moment).
However, more recently, that relationship isn’t generating such impressive results. Over this recovery, black and white unemployment have declined by similar amounts (4.5 points for blacks; 3.8 for whites). And, as Appelbaum points out, real median wages have fallen twice as much for blacks as for whites.
But that’s kinda the point: until recently this has been a uniquely weak recovery, and as such, tells us little yet about the extent to which full employment will lift the relative economic fortunes of black workers.
If we get to and stay at full employment, I’m confident it will work as it has in the past, based both on the history briefly cited above and on some truly exciting results from a new paper we’ve commissioned for our full employment project on the benefits of full employment to black workers, written by the economist Valarie Wilson from the Economic Policy Institute.
Valerie will be highlighting the results at an event we’re holding in DC on March 30th so far be it from me to steal her thunder. But she’s got some panel data regressions (which provide lots more observations and variance than the simple time series comparisons noted above) showing the impact of lower unemployment on black compared to white median wages, and man…all’s I can say is I’m employing great restraint not to just print them right here and now!
Here’s another point worth considering. Various economists on team full employment have been trying to get the Fed to hold off on its interest rate liftoff, but Appelbaum writes: “It’s not obvious, however, that holding down borrowing costs for a little longer would be an effective way to address the underlying problem. Indeed, the problem is a good illustration of the limits of monetary policy.”
That may be true in the following sense: if the Fed raises rates a little bit in 2015q4 instead of 2015q3, I doubt it will matter that much to anyone in the real economy (though financial markets would make a huge deal out of it). Similarly, if they hold to a 5.4% full employment rate and a firm 2% inflation ceiling that mustn’t be breached, or if they shift from being data driven to shooting at the phantom menace of inflation that’s allegedly hiding out of sight from the data just around the corner—well then, yeah, they won’t much help those who depend on lasting full employment to catch a break.
He’s also got a point re underlying problems. Even full employment may not be enough to reach the millions of workers with criminal records who face uniquely high barriers to the job market. I’ve written about fair-hiring policies to reach these workers, and so has Appelbaum.
But check this out: I mentioned our March 30 event. Well, another speaker on the panel that morning will be the guy from whom I learned all I know about fair-hiring, Maurice Emsellem from the National Employment Law Project.
I know what you’re thinking: what about macro, what about Fed policy? How can you call yourself a full employment maven and leave that out? Did I forget to mention our keynote speaker? A fella named Bernanke…Ben Bernanke. Here’s the flyer. Be there and be square.
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New initiative Opioid Network lobbies legislators
Standing in the marble-floored hallway of a U.S. Senate building, Don LoGiudice of Boardman recalled the morning he...
Standing in the marble-floored hallway of a U.S. Senate building, Don LoGiudice of Boardman recalled the morning he found his son, Donny, dead from a drug overdose.
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Families, Lawmakers to Speak at Rally in Washington, DC on Six-Month Anniversary of Hurricane María
Families, Lawmakers to Speak at Rally in Washington, DC on Six-Month Anniversary of Hurricane María
“Protesters will gather for a rally at the headquarters of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and then...
“Protesters will gather for a rally at the headquarters of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and then march towards several congressional offices to voice their demands. The event is organized by Power 4 Puerto Rico, a coalition made up of the Hispanic Federation and Center for Popular Democracy, among other community organizations.”
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Why the People’s Climate March matters to people of color like me
Ever since taking power, the Trump administration has made clear it intends to wage war on the environment. It’s given...
Ever since taking power, the Trump administration has made clear it intends to wage war on the environment. It’s given the green light to both the Dakota Access and Keystone pipelines and geared up to wipe away long-standing protections that keep our air and water safe. Its mission is clear: Eliminate any obstacle that stands in the way of fossil fuel companies.
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Southern Cities Are Passing Paid Sick Leave—But Republicans Won’t Let Them Have It
Southern Cities Are Passing Paid Sick Leave—But Republicans Won’t Let Them Have It
Texas advocates for paid sick leave haven’t given up hope, however. They plan to wield the sheer amount of popular...
Texas advocates for paid sick leave haven’t given up hope, however. They plan to wield the sheer amount of popular support for these ordinances in their favor and against the state politicians who block them. “Our state leadership is out of touch with what the majority of Texans believe and want for their communities,” says Michelle Tremillo, executive director of the Texas Organizing Project, a community organizing group behind the paid sick leave ordinance.
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Faltan traductores en viviendas públicas de NYC
El Diario - March 6, 2014, by Joaquín Botero, Juan Matossian, and Gloria Medina - El reciente caso del triple asesinato...
El Diario - March 6, 2014, by Joaquín Botero, Juan Matossian, and Gloria Medina - El reciente caso del triple asesinato en Jamaica, Queens, pudo haberse evitado si la Policía hubiese traducido una denuncia que la víctima había escrito en español. El mismo ha puesto de relieve algunas de las lagunas de la legislación de la ciudad en esta materia.
A pesar de las reglamentaciones que obligan a todas las agencias públicas de Nueva York a brindar servicios gratuitos de traducción a personas con limitado o nulo conocimiento del inglés, todavía existen serias omisiones y dificultades de implementación que en algunos casos han llevado a resultados trágicos.
En 2008, el alcalde Michael Bloomberg firmó la orden ejecutiva 120, que exige a las oficinas municipales —incluida la Policía— proveer dichos servicios. En 2011, elgobernador Andrew Cuomo firmó la orden ejecutiva 26, que requiere traducir documentos públicos a varios idiomas. Estas normas cuentan con financiamiento local y federal.
"La ciudad ha hecho progresos, pero Bloomberg no se esforzó al cien por ciento. Esperamos que De Blasio presione más para la ejecución de estas leyes", dijo Andrew Friedman, codirector del Center for Popular Democracy y fundador de Make the Road, una de las organizaciones comunitarias que más ha luchado por este tema.
El alcalde Bill de Blasio empezó su mandato con el grave incidente del asesinato deDeisy García y sus dos pequeñas hijas, apuñaladas por Miguel Mejía, esposo y padre de las víctimas. La mujer había reportado amenazas de muerte y abusos físicos de su pareja, pero los oficiales del precinto 103 de registraron incorrectamente sus denuncias como "acoso" en lugar de "violencia doméstica". En consecuencia, Mejía no fue arrestado —ni siquiera se le contactó.
El abogado Roger Asman, quien representa a la madre y abuela de las víctimas, prepara una demanda contra la Policía. Asman posee dos reportes escritos en español por García, en mayo y noviembre del año pasado, en donde la desesperada mujer cuenta que sufrió jalones de pelo, empujones y amenazas de muerte contra ella y las niñas. EL DIARIO/LA PRENSA pudo leer uno de estos reportes en los que la mujer transcribe un intercambio con su excompañero que confirma lo anterior.
"No tradujeron el reporte, ni miraron los aspectos más importantes, ni le dieron la protección constitucional que le correspondía", dice Asmar.
El NYPD enfrenta además una demanda colectiva por siete casos similares.
La abogada Amy Taylor indicó que "el NYPD no tiene un sistema para asegurar que sus agentes hagan lo que deben. Y si tienen un reglamento, no lo están siguiendo".
El caso más reciente fue el de la dominicana Elena Jiménez (34), que llamó al 911, el 30 de enero, después de regresar del hospital con su hijo. Encontró que su esposo había cambiado la cerradura de la vivienda en Norwood, El Bronx. Aunque Jiménez tenía en la mano la orden de protección en contra de su esposo cuando los agentes del precinto 52 llegaron, fue a ella a la que le ordenaron sacar sus pertenencias en bolsas de basura.
"No sé qué les dijo mi esposo, pero me dieron cinco minutos para que sacara mis cosas", relató Jiménez quien llegó a la ciudad hace un año y no habla inglés.
En respuesta a estos casos, el Departamento de Policía se comprometió a corregir las falencias en el sistema, mientras que el comisionado William Bratton admitió que se había cometido un error. El NYPD cuenta con 1,200 intérpretes calificados que hablan más de 70 idiomas.
Casos en la vivienda
La Autoridad de Vivienda Pública (NYCHA) tiene la obligación de proveer personal y servicios de traducción para personas con inglés limitado. Residentes de tres grandes "projects" de El Bronx (Twin Parks West, Twin Parks East y Monterey), donde viven alrededor de mil hispanos, denuncian que dependen de la asistencia de personal que sólo habla inglés en la oficina de administración y reciben todas las notificaciones sin traducir.
La dominicana Gisela Concepción (62), una de ellas, recibió recientemente un importante aviso para actualizar su contrato de alquiler, pero no pudo acudir porque no estaba traducido y no entendía lo que le pedían.
"Necesito ayuda de mis vecinos para traducir todos los avisos que me mandan. Lo peor es que no puedo reportar cuando tengo un problema en mi apartamento porque en la oficina no me entienden", explicó.
NYCHA alega que su política es ofrecer siempre servicios lingüísticos gratis para los residentes que lo necesitan, y se asegurará de que los empleados de los "projects" mencionados se familiaricen con la misma.
“Tomamos todas las quejas de nuestros residentes muy seriamente, y nos aseguraremos de que nuestros empleados implementen nuestras directrices de acceso lingüístico adecuadamente”, declaró la agencia a través de un comunicado.
Por su parte, el concejal Ritchie Torres, que preside el Comité de Vivienda Pública, dice estar “muy preocupado” por las informaciones sobre la falta de personal para atender a inquilinos que no hablan inglés y promete tomar cartas en el asunto.
“Esto es una falta inexcusable de servicio a residentes de vivienda pública y me aseguraré de que NYCHA acometa el problema”, dijo Torres, quien ya ha ayudado a Concepción para que NYCHA le de una nueva cita.
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Joseph Stiglitz explains why the Fed shouldn't raise interest rates
The answer should clearly be "no." The preponderance of economic data indicates that the predictable costs of premature...
The answer should clearly be "no." The preponderance of economic data indicates that the predictable costs of premature tightening — slower job and wage growth — far outweigh the risk of accelerating inflation.
Six years into a lackluster U.S. expansion, price growth for personal consumption expenditures — excluding food and energy — has averaged less than 1.5% annually in the recovery, well below the Fed's unofficial 2% inflation target. It slowed to 1.3% so far in 2015.
Global economic forces are poised to drive inflation still lower. Last week, oil prices fell to $42, a low not seen since February 2009. Europe's growth remains anemic and is likely to remain so: The IMF forecast for 2015 is just 1.5%. And while it is difficult to piece together a precise picture of what is happening in China, most experts see growth slowing markedly, with effects in other emerging markets.
With a weaker euro and yuan, our exports will decrease and our imports increase. Together, this will put pressure on domestic businesses and the job market, which is hardly robust.
Despite a headline unemployment rate of 5.3%, the true labor market situation faced by working families in the United States remains dire. Millions remain trapped in disguised unemployment and part-time employment. As of July, the nation faced a jobs gap of 3.3 million — the number needed to reach pre-recession employment levels while also absorbing the people who entered the potential labor force. The true unemployment rate, including those working part time involuntarily and marginally attached, is more than 10.4%.
Poor labor market conditions are also reflected in wages and incomes. So far this year, wages for production non-supervisory workers, which tracks closely to the median wage, fell by 0.5%. Median household income — a better indicator of how well the economy is doing as seen by the typical American than GDP — at last measure was lower than it was a quarter-century ago.
It is hard to see why the Fed would choose slower job and wage growth for most Americans just to protect against the theoretical risk of moderately higher inflation. But, then again, it's often hard to understand the Fed's policy choices, which tend to contribute to widening inequality in the United States.
Too often, after the end of one recession, the Fed, fearing inflation, has used monetary policy to dampen the economic expansion. Its maneuvers keep inflation low but unemployment higher than it otherwise would be, negatively affecting all workers, not just those out of a job. Workers in jobs face greater stresses, downward pressure on wages and diminished opportunities for upward career mobility. The costs of higher unemployment are borne disproportionately by people in lower-income jobs, who also tend to be disproportionately people of color and women.
After the 2008 crisis, the Fed tried to stimulate the economy by buying bank debt, mortgage-backed securities and Treasury assets directly from the market — so-called quantitative easing — which disproportionately benefited the rich. Data on wealth ownership show clearly that the portfolios of the rich are weighed more toward equity, and one of the main channels through which quantitative easing helped the economy was to increase equity prices.
So quantitative easing was yet another instance of failed trickle-down economics — by giving more to the rich, the Fed hoped that everyone would benefit. But so far, these policies have enriched the few without returning the economy to full employment or broadly shared income growth.
The Fed has been forthright in pointing out the limits of monetary policy to help the economy. Fiscal policy could lead to stronger and more equitable growth, but the Republican-led Congress has demanded austerity.
Still, there is more the Fed could do. It could do more to curb excessive debit card fees and the anti-competitive charges that credit and debit cards impose on merchants. These fees lead to higher prices and lower real incomes of workers. It could also do more to encourage lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
Easiest of all, it could choose not to raise interest rates. All policy is made under uncertainty. In this case, however, the risks are one-sided: Ordinary Americans in particular will be hurt by a premature rate rise, as the economy slows, unemployment increases and there is even more downward pressure on wages.
Joseph E. Stiglitz is a Nobel laureate in economics, a professor at Columbia University and chief economist of the Roosevelt Institute.
Source: The Los Angeles Times
Janet Yellen Meets With Community Leaders on Fed Policy, Jobs
The Wall Street Journal - November 14, 2014, by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa - Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen met...
The Wall Street Journal - November 14, 2014, by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa - Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen met Friday with a coalition of community activists who are urging the central bank to resist pressures to raise interest rates before the labor market has fully recovered and calling for greater public input into the selection of regional Fed bank presidents.
At a press briefing outside the Fed before the meeting, organized by the Center for Popular Democracy and featuring workers, community organizers and liberal economists, the activists said the idea that the economy was close to full recovery was belied by the joblessness and underemployment of millions of Americans.
“We’re here to launch a national campaign for a stronger economy and for a reformed Federal Reserve,” said Ady Barkan, staff attorney at the center, a left-leaning national nonprofit organization. “The economy is not working for the vast majority of people,” he said, citing high unemployment, inequality and large racial disparities.
The Fed declined to comment on the meeting or the activists’ recommendations.
The Fed last month ended its bond-buying program aimed at supporting economic growth, citing “substantial improvement” in the outlook for the labor market. Those present at the briefing said the experience of many communities across the country suggests otherwise.
One of their biggest complaints was the inability of workers to find full-time work, a problem that has worried Fed officials and suggests the job market is still some way from full health.
“My job used to be steady, something you could count on,” said Jean Andre, 48, of New York, who works on logistics in the film industry. “I’m one of the names at the end of the movies that nobody reads. But I’m underemployed, I just can’t get full-time work anymore, not like I used to before the crash.”
With the unemployment rate 5.8% in October, Fed officials are debating when to begin raising interest rates from near zero. Many investors expect the central bank to start raising its benchmark short-term rate sometime in the summer of 2015.
Josh Bivens, an economist at the liberal Economic Policy Institute in Washington, noted that black unemployment is generally double the overall level. Black communities would be among those hit hardest by potentially premature Fed rate increases, he said.
The activist group also called for greater public input into the selection of the presidents of the Fed’s 12 regional banks. This comes ahead of the retirements next year of Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser. The two have been some of the most vocal opponents of aggressive Fed efforts to reduce unemployment—such as holding short-term rates near zero and buying bonds to lower long-term rates–arguing such policies risk fueling excessive inflation and asset bubbles while doing little good for the economy.
Fed presidents are selected by the boards of directors of the regional Feds, with the approval of the Washington-based Fed board of governors. The regional boards are composed of bankers, business executives and community representatives,
Kati Sipp, a director of the Pennsylvania Working Families Party who spoke at the briefing, said many of the regional bank board members designated as community representatives are not truly representative of the communities they are supposed to serve. “Right now in Philadelphia we have Comcast CMCSA +0.10% executives that are representing the public, and we think that it’s important for us that real people are also representing the public in Federal Reserve policy making.”
Michael Angelakis, vice chairman and CFO of Comcast Corp., is deputy director of the Philadelphia Fed’s Board.
“In Philadelphia we’ve had an 8% average unemployment rate for this year and it’s a 14.5% unemployment rate for the black community,” Ms. Sipp said. If Mr. Plosser believes the economy is back to full health, she said, then he hasn’t visited many of his own city’s troubled neighborhoods. “If he had, he would not believe that our economy has really recovered.”
Mr. Plosser has said he believes the job market is close to full employment and the economic recovery is genuine, if unremarkable.
The Philadelphia Fed announced Friday that Korn Ferry KFY -0.15%, the executive search firm hired to conduct the search for a new president, established an email address “to receive inquiries.” Asked if the move was in response to the protests, a spokesperson said it was “one part of our broad search process.”
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Watch: pro-DACA activists sneaked into Trump International Hotel for a surprise
Watch: pro-DACA activists sneaked into Trump International Hotel for a surprise
About 30 immigration activists made 5 pm dinner reservations on Wednesday for the restaurant on the first floor of the...
About 30 immigration activists made 5 pm dinner reservations on Wednesday for the restaurant on the first floor of the Trump International Hotel in Washington, DC.
They entered dressed in suits, wearing ties and khakis. They snuck two bullhorns and 30 noisemakers in briefcases, as well as dozens of pamphlets and a banner reading, “Immigrants are #HereToStay.”
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17 hours ago
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