In just a little over three weeks’ time, on 17 September, the US central bankers are going to have to sit down around a table and decide whether to raise interest ratesfor the first time since before the financial crisis of 2008 unfolded. And just as the markets were preparing for the news, China has thrown a wrench in the works.

Just to put this in its proper context, the last time the Fed raised interest rates, it was June 2006. Microsoft was releasing a version of Windows Vista; Google officially became a word in the Oxford English Dictionary. The Da Vinci Code ruled at the movie box office. The iPhone hadn’t even been introduced yet; we didn’t yet live in a world of apps and selfies. Hey, you could even collect interest on your bank savings account!

If it all feels blurred and slightly unreal (especially the idea of earning interest from a bank account) in your mind, that’s OK. Time has a habit of doing that to us. Then, too, what has happened since then has rendered the events of 2006 pretty forgettable: the financial crisis, the recession, and the struggle to get back to where we were, all neatly summarized in the glib phrase that some use when describing the first part of the 21st century: the “lost decade”.

But the Fed really, really, really wants to get back to normal. And that would be the old normal – when its team of policymakers meets once every six or seven weeks to monitor the economy and determine whether it’s overheating or cooling down too rapidly. Then they whip out the key tool in their monetary policy arsenal – interest rates – and adjust it accordingly. If the economic environment is too robust and the threat of inflation looms large on the horizon, well then, higher interest rates should make money more costly, dampen demand for it and calm everyone down a bit. On the other extreme, if animal spirits are low and unemployment is high, low interest rates should generate some economic activity and get everything moving again.

For now, the Fed’s leaders have said repeatedly, they are waiting until they are reasonably sure that inflation is heading toward their annual target of 2%. For the last three years, it hasn’t approached that level, and there’s tremendous uncertainty about acting too soon – and causing the economy to stall altogether – or delaying and perhaps allowing bubbles to take shape and jeopardize the credibility of the Fed itself as a policy-making institution.

It doesn’t help that the post-crisis recession seemed to throw the ability of monetary policy as a tool to guide the economy smoothly through storms into question. It certainly wasn’t enough to get the economy going once the financial system had been rescued from bankers intent on dashing off a precipice like lemmings, carrying the whole structure with them.

And now policymakers must continue to grapple with economic news that can be used in whatever way a pundit wants, to advocate for pretty much whatever point of view one wishes. The housing market is recovering at its strongest pace in nearly a decade! But it’s still functioning well below long-term historical averages, when compared to total national GDP levels. It all depends on which data set you prefer to look at. Employment? Well, the good news is that unemployment levels have fallen. On the other hand, there’s absolutely no wage inflation to be found, much less to be contained: most Americans would find the idea to be laughable. Indeed, middle income earners have seen a significant erosion in their buying power. There is inflation, but it’s in the prices of goods and services, not in wages.

Yellen and her fellow policymakers need to wake up and smell the espresso, according to a consortium of progressive policy organizations led by the “Fed Up” campaign, a nonprofit created by the Center for Popular Democracy. They’re putting together an online petition to be delivered to Yellen and other Fed members at their annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming retreat at the end of August. “Working families haven’t made a full economic recovery, and now is not the time to declare victory,” the petition states, noting that higher interest rates would make it more costly for Americans to buy homes or cars, as well as boosting the costs of student loans and credit card or any other form of debt.

All of that is true, but the Fed policymakers aren’t just thinking about working families when they consider boosting interest rates. They’re considering the bigger picture, and specifically what might happen if they don’t act: inflation (in the form of a flood of new, cheap loans from banks) and, far more dangerously, asset bubbles.

The latter is a real risk: the Fed already is stepping up its scrutiny of one particularly risky and active party of the market fueled by ultra-cheap financing, the leveraged loan market. According to at least one source, since the Fed tried to crack down when banks were shrugging off the regulator’s guidelines, the market has only grown still larger, to nearly $875bn. And it is full of the kind of excessive risk taking that led to the 2008 crisis.

In a perfect world, Yellen and the Fed would rather not preside over a repeat of that event, and if the price to pay is higher interest rates, well, that’s a perfectly acceptable tradeoff, thank you very much. Indeed, some economists believe that they already are delinquent; that they should have begun “normalizing” interest rate policy a long time ago. Already, a Bank of America securities report has scoffed that keeping rates unchanged for so long has left the Fed suffering from “central bank policy impotence” – and no little blue pill in sight.

So, will the Fed act?

The minutes of the Fed’s last meeting, held in late July, which were released to the public last week, display a lot more dithering and a considerable amount of wariness. Inflation data just isn’t there; Federal Open Market Committee members say they want more evidence that economic growth is “sufficiently strong”. How Yellen will forge a consensus out of this group is baffling.

And then there is the wild card: China. Is it even possible for the US to consider raising interest rates with the yuan depreciating, stock markets plunging and the contagion spreading to other markets in Southeast Asia? The precise extent to which these events might affect the United States is hard to gauge, but in a globalized economy, of which China and its 1.4 billion citizens play a growing and significant role, the Fed can’t pretend that they are blips on the horizon.

For my part, I’m left with only one certainty. Charged with sorting through all these issues, weighing them, and making the right policy choices for the country, Yellen is earning every penny of her annual salary of $201,700.

Source: The Guardian