Header Image

Campaign Updates

| Building a National Campaign for a Strong Economy: Fed Up

Yellen Says Debate Over When to Hike Now Center Stage

MarketWatch - August 22, 2014, by Greg Robb - With the economy mending, the Federal Reserve’s emphasis is “naturally shifting” to the debate over when to raise interest rates, the head of the U.S. central bank said Friday.

“With the economy getting closer to our objectives, the FOMC’s emphasis is naturally shifting to questions about the degree of remaining slack, how quickly that slack is to be taken up, and thereby to the question of under what conditions we should begin dialing back our extraordinary accommodation,” Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in a speech opening the central bank’s summer policy conference in Jackson Hole.

Yellen said there was “no simple recipe” for the Fed to follow, but again warned that rate hikes could come sooner than expected if progress in the labor market continued to be more rapid than anticipated or if inflation moves up more rapidly.

Balancing this more hawkish tone, Yellen said 19 labor market indicators followed by the Fed suggest the decline in the unemployment rate overstates the improvement in overall labor-market conditions.

The initial reaction in the stock market was a muted one, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.18%   trading in a narrow range. Read Market Snapshot

Her comments “skirted around the issue of future monetary policy by noting that whilst there were a number of factors that might mean the labor market was less of a threat to inflation than in previous business cycles, equally, there were factors that might make it more so,” said ING economist Rob Carnell in a note to clients.

Yellen’s remarks about a shift in the Fed debate toward when, and under what conditions to tighten, lend credence to comments earlier this month from Richard Fisher, the hawkish president of the Dallas Fed, who said that the discussion among policy makers at their last meeting had moved in his direction.

Minutes of that meeting released on Wednesday were also judged by Fed watchers to be hawkish.

Perhaps sensing the shift, protestors have arrived for the first time in Jackson Hole this year urging the Fed to delay any rate hike.

Yellen gave no sense a rate hike was imminent. She noted the Fed still thinks that labor-market slack is “significant” and that the central bank has repeated it intends to hold rates close to zero for a “considerable time” after the Fed ends its bond-buying program, expected in October.

But her remarks suggest the first rate hike since 2006 is now on the table for active discussion.

Yellen and her allies on the Fed have signaled the first rate hike won’t happen until after the middle of next year. Hawks on the committee are pressing for an earlier move, and they have been vocal in speaking to reporters at Jackson Hole.

Source