Fed Splits Evident Amid Wait for Yellen: Jackson Hole Journal
Bloomberg News - August 22, 2014, by Jeff Kearns, Simon Kennedy and Michael McKee - Divisions within the...
Bloomberg News - August 22, 2014, by Jeff Kearns, Simon Kennedy and Michael McKee - Divisions within the Federal Reserve over how long to keep easy monetary policy are already in evidence in Wyoming as investors prepare for Chair Janet Yellen’s keynote speech.
Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard told Bloomberg Radio that the U.S. central bank may begin tightening monetary policy earlier than officials previously expected.
“The evidence is leading toward an earlier increase than would have been in the works earlier this year,” said Bullard. “Labor markets have improved quite a bit relative to what the committee was thinking.”
Bullard spoke after Kansas City Fed President Esther George told Bloomberg Television that broad-based employment gains suggest the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, who voted against the Fed’s policy statement last month, told CNBC he’s concerned about the Fed not adjusting policy appropriately.
By contrast, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart urged more patience, warning in a separate interview with Bloomberg Radio against “moving prematurely and snuffing out some progress.”
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Robots don’t steal jobs, the U.S. labor market is less flexible than it was and workers haven’t suffered unprecedented periods out of work.
Photographer: Bradly Boner/Bloomberg
Fed Chair Janet Yellen arrived at the dinner to be greeted by about 10 people wearing bright green T-shirts emblazoned with “What Recovery?” and carrying placards with labor market data. Close
Those are among the conclusions of papers being presented at the symposium. Here is a review of their contents, which can be read in full on the Kansas City Fed’s website.
Robots and computers don’t steal as many jobs as some believe, and automation actually benefits many workers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor David Autor said in his paper.
A key reason humans aren’t obsolete yet is that simple tasks such as visually identifying a chair, which any child can do, aren’t so easy for engineers to teach to computers, Autor said.
“Journalists and expert commentators overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities that increase productivity, raise earnings, and augment demand for skilled labor,” he wrote. “Challenges to substituting machines for workers in tasks requiring flexibility, judgment, and common sense remain immense.”
* * *
The U.S. labor market became less fluid in recent decades partly because of an aging workforce, a shift to older businesses, and the spread of occupational licensing and certification, economists Steven J. Davis and John Haltiwanger wrote in their paper.
The economists define labor market fluidity as “flows of jobs and workers across employers.” The paper found the U.S. “underwent a large, broad-based decline in the pace of labor market flows in recent decades.”
“An aging workforce is a factor behind the slowdown of worker reallocation,” the paper said.
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U.S. workers in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 recession haven’t experienced unprecedentedly long bouts of non-employment, according to a paper by economists Jae Song and Till von Wachter.
Their findings “suggest that the potential for hysteresis in the aftermath of the Great Recession is moderate,” the paper said. Hysteresis posits that people out of work for too long have a harder time finding work, leading to a persistent decline in the employment-to-population rate
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Policy makers would benefit from a better understanding of labor markets, economist Giuseppe Bertola argued in a paper that weighed the impact of rules making those markets rigid or flexible.
Rules that protect workers from job losses and provide more generous unemployment benefits can soften and smooth shocks to the economy, said Bertola.
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George opened the symposium late yesterday by putting the presenters on the spot.
The last conference devoted to labor markets was 20 years ago, George told the group of almost 200 as they ate steak and salmon dinners beneath elk antler chandeliers.
The presenters and discussants back then included five future Nobel Prize winners and two academics who would go on to be central bankers: Bank of England Deputy Governor Charles Bean and Stanley Fischer, the Bank of Israel governor who became Fed vice chairman in June. Fischer sat at one of the front tables last night.
“So for those of you that will be on the program,” George said to laughter, “We’re either setting you up for a blessing or a curse.”
This year’s topic is “Re-Inventing Labor Market Dynamics.” In 1994 it was “Reducing Unemployment: Current Issues and Policy Options.”
George said she went through the 1994 proceedings only to find central bankers and economists are still grappling with some of the same basic issues today.
“I saw that the discussion included things like the decline in demand for low-skilled workers due to technology and the challenge of the long-term unemployment,” George said. “And questions were raised by that symposium, as they are today, about the usefulness of the unemployment rate as a measure of economic slack.”
It reads like a list of the most vexing issues the Fed faces now and will be attempting to tackle today and tomorrow.
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Fed Chair Janet Yellen arrived at the dinner to be greeted by about 10 people wearing bright green T-shirts emblazoned with “What Recovery?” and carrying placards with labor market data.
The protesters had traveled to Wyoming to highlight the plight of “struggling workers from around the country” who want the Fed to pursue “full employment that reduces poverty and expands the middle class,” according to the Center for Popular Democracy, a Brooklyn-based organization. The backs of their T-shirts had a graph comparing the performance of wage growth among the top 1 percent and the rest.
Ady Barkan, a staff attorney with the group, spoke briefly with Yellen at the door of the lodge’s Explorers Room. “She said she understands the issues we’re talking about and is doing everything they can,” he said, after she had entered the room.
Yellen has regularly cited weak labor markets as a scourge of the economy she’s trying to boost with easy monetary policy.
Shemethia Butler, who works part time at a McDonald’s Corp. restaurant in Washington, was one of those to make the trip. The 34-year-old said that while she isn’t up on monetary policy, she wants policy makers to know she fears higher interest rates for her and her community. She said she works 25 to 35 hours a week for $9.50 an hour at a job she’s had for just over a year. Before that she was unemployed for two years.
“There’s no recovery,” Butler said. “The economy is broken because there aren’t enough jobs for people like me.”
* * *
Yellen’s speech will be the main event of the first full day of the conference. She will speak at 8 a.m. Mountain Time today.
Her address will be followed by the presentation of the paper by Davis and Haltiwanger.
Autor will then discuss job polarization before a panel on demographics featuring Karen Eggleston of Stanford University, David Lam of the University of Michigan and Ronald Lee of the University of California, Berkeley.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will deliver the keynote luncheon speech.
Tomorrow, Von Wachter and then Bertola will present their papers.
The final panel will provide an overview of labor markets and monetary policy. It will include Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Brazilian central bank chief Alexandre Tombini.
* * *
The conference is lacking Wall Street participants for the first time.
An exception is Jacob Frenkel, chairman of JPMorgan Chase International, who is attending in his capacity of chairman of the board of trustees of the Group of 30, a private-sector group of mainly former policy makers which advises central banks and governments. Tim Adams, president of the Institute of International Finance, is also present.
Draghi, Kuroda and Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz provide international central banking firepower.
Among academics in attendance are Alan Blinder of Princeton University, Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff and Martin Feldstein, and John Taylor of Stanford University. President Barack Obama’s administration is represented by Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and Jeffrey Zients, director of the National Economic Council.
* * *
The backdrop for the symposium and Yellen’s speech was set by the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s July discussions.
Fed officials in July raised the possibility they might raise rates sooner than anticipated, as they neared agreement on an exit strategy. Some participants were “increasingly uncomfortable” with the pledge to keep interest rates low for a “considerable period,” the minutes said.
At the same time, “many participants” still saw “a larger gap between current labor market conditions and those consistent with their assessments of normal levels of labor utilization.”
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Some recent stories on the U.S. labor market:
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The opening day of Jackson Hole has been associated with stock-market gains in each of the past seven years. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose an average 1.3 percent on each of them from 2007 to 2012, following speeches by then-Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who skipped last year’s conference.
The biggest climb was the 1.9 percent of 2009, when Bernanke said the economy appeared to be “leveling out.” Gains also followed his signals of 2010 and 2012 that fresh asset-purchases were imminent.
The bar is therefore set high for Yellen who identifies slack labor markets as a reason for easy monetary policy. Economist Ed Yardeni says the “Fairy Godmother of the Bull Market” won’t let us down.
Still, Steven Englander of Citigroup Inc. says that because “dovishness is increasingly anticipated,” Yellen may have to intensify her support for low interest rates if risk-assets such as stocks are to rally anew.
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Who were the women who confronted Sen. Jeff Flake about Kavanaugh vote in an elevator?
Who were the women who confronted Sen. Jeff Flake about Kavanaugh vote in an elevator?
Two women who said they were survivors of sexual assault angrily confronted Republican Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona in an...
Two women who said they were survivors of sexual assault angrily confronted Republican Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona in an elevator Friday morning over his decision to vote yes on Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Read the article and watch the video here.
These Southern Cities Are at the Heart of the Struggle Against White Supremacy
These Southern Cities Are at the Heart of the Struggle Against White Supremacy
The Black Lives Matter activists and anarchists, the socialists and anti-fascists, the religious leaders and local...
The Black Lives Matter activists and anarchists, the socialists and anti-fascists, the religious leaders and local residents who risked their bodies and their well-being in Charlottesville this month should be celebrated for their courage and praised for their good sense and smart tactics. Violent fascists, neo-Confederates, Ku Klux Klanners, and other racist extremists don’t care about justice or civility or our common humanity. Their express aim is to annihilate anyone who isn’t white, straight, and Christian. And they have made it clear that they are willing to use raw and murderous force to get their way.
Read the full article here.
Starbucks Employees Treated Badly
While Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) CEO and founder Howard Schultz barnstorms America with one new program to help...
While Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) CEO and founder Howard Schultz barnstorms America with one new program to help Americans after another, a new report shows his company continues to treat many of its employees badly.
According to research released by experts at the Center for Popular Democracy:
A 2015 nationwide survey of Starbucks workers reveals that the company is not living up to its commitment to provide predictable, sustainable schedules to its workforce. Starbucks’ frontline employees bear the brunt of the management imperative to minimize store labor costs, which takes precedence over attempts to stabilize work hours, provide healthy schedules, and to ensure employees have real input into their working conditions.
Also:
Many Starbucks scheduling policies fail to reflect the company’s human-focused values, while other policies designed to promote sustainable schedules have been implemented inconsistently.
According to a recent report from 24/7 Wall St. titled Companies Paying Americans the Least:
Coffee giant Starbucks employs roughly 141,000 people in the United States at more than 7,300 locations. Because the coffee chain offers some benefits not commonly offered in low-paying jobs, it has long been considered the ideal job for young students supporting themselves or even single parents. However, an increasing number of reports suggest the famous Seattle company makes life difficult for its employees. Of particular note is the company’s increasing use of complicated and inconsistent scheduling, a practice also used by many other major retailers. This practice means that baristas’ hours may be posted with little notice, preventing them from making other plans, and therefore nearly denying them the ability to earn extra income from other sources.
The work hours, benefit problems and low pay challenges face many employees at large food chains and major retailers, but none of those places has a chief executive who publicly advocates the right of many of America’s most economically challenged people. Among the most recent was Schultz’s effort to support hiring the underprivileged in Phoenix:
“Chicago marked an important milestone in our efforts to put America’s underserved youth on a pathway to employment,” said Howard Schultz, chairman and chief executive officer of Starbucks and co-founder of the Schultz Family Foundation. “As we look ahead to Phoenix, where one in five youth is not in school or employed, we have a critical opportunity to accelerate our collective hiring efforts and create meaningful lifelong opportunities for all. I truly believe that these young men and women represent the most significant untapped source of productivity and talent for our economy, and America’s leading companies are ready to hire them.”
If one of these young people gets a job at Starbucks, the “meaningful lifelong opportunities” may not be much of an opportunity at all.
Source: 247WallSt.com
Death Cab For Cutie shares a new, anti-Trump track
Death Cab For Cutie shares a new, anti-Trump track
Death Cab For Cutie is no fan of Donald Trump. The group has released a new song, “Million Dollar Loan,” inspired by...
Death Cab For Cutie is no fan of Donald Trump. The group has released a new song, “Million Dollar Loan,” inspired by the candidate’s dubious claims of rising from the bottom on his own when he was actually launched into the business world on the back of a million-dollar loan from his father. In a statement, Death Cab frontman Ben Gibbard said that he wrote the song after being “disgusted” by how “flippant” Trump was in his assertions. He goes on to say Trump is “beneath us,” noting that “Donald Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that he is unworthy of the honor and responsibility of being President of the United States of America, and in no way, shape, or form represents what this country truly stands for.”
“Million Dollar Loan” is the first song from the “30 Days, 30 Songs” project, launched by the writer Dave Eggers. Imagined as a continuation of his 2012 “90 Days, 90 Reasons” project, “30 Days, 30 Songs” will, as its title suggests, launch a new, anti-Trump song into the world every day until the election. According to a press release, tracks will be a mixture of new material and unheard songs, and this week’s offerings will include original cuts from Aimee Mann, Jim James, Thao Nguyen, Bhi Bhiman, and Daveed Diggs’ group Clipping, as well as a never-before-heard-unless-you-were-there live song from R.E.M.
All of the tracks will be available on the 30 Days, 30 Songs website, as well as on both Spotify and Apple Music. You can also pick up the songs on iTunes, and all proceeds will be donated to the Center For Popular Democracy, a group that is working to ensure universal voter registration for all Americans.
By Marah Eakin
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Austin, Texas: If We Can’t Be a Sanctuary City, How about a Freedom City?
Austin, Texas: If We Can’t Be a Sanctuary City, How about a Freedom City?
The ACLU has said it supports advocacy for freedom cities. Sarah Johnson, director for Local Progress, said, “There is...
The ACLU has said it supports advocacy for freedom cities. Sarah Johnson, director for Local Progress, said, “There is an interest from all of our members in Texas and in other states across the country in really pursuing the strongest possible policies to protect immigrants at this time.”
Read the full article here.
Fed’s Kashkari to Spend Day in Life of Struggling Black Family
Fed’s Kashkari to Spend Day in Life of Struggling Black Family
Neel Kashkari tried living on streets for a week during his failed run for California governor in 2014. Now, the...
Neel Kashkari tried living on streets for a week during his failed run for California governor in 2014. Now, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis will spend a day in the life of a black family barely making ends meet.
“Walking a day in somebody else’s shoes is actually -- it makes the anecdotes that much more real,” Kashkari, 43, told reporters Wednesday in Minneapolis after a meeting with the local community to discuss race and economic inequality. “It influences how I think about the problems we face.”
Kashkari, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive who went on to oversee the U.S. government’s $700 billion financial rescue program, took the helm of the Minneapolis Fed in January.
National poverty levels among blacks stand at 26 percent, more than double those for whites. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has discussed inequality and the fact that minorities have higher unemployment than whites in speeches and testimony to Congress.
Outrage has mounted in the U.S. over a recent spate of fatal shootings of black men by police, some of which were filmed and broadcast over social media, worsening racial tensions in many communities.
On Wednesday, Kashkari, whose parents emigrated to the U.S. from India, heard Rosheeda Credit describe how she and her boyfriend worked three jobs between them to support their family. She then invited him to find out himself what it was like by spending the day with her.
Kashkari said he’d be “happy to do it.”
The Fed has also been under fire from Democrats, including presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, for a lack of diversity on the boards of directors on the 12 regional Fed banks. Kashkari said the central bank had a lot of work to do to improve diversity and was committed to making that happen.
By ALISTER BULL & JEANNA SMIALEK
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Chicago's minimum wage fight officially kicks off with $15 proposal
Crain's Chicago Business - May 27, 2014, by Greg Hinz - Ending months of preliminaries, a group of 10 or more Chicago...
Crain's Chicago Business - May 27, 2014, by Greg Hinz - Ending months of preliminaries, a group of 10 or more Chicago aldermen tomorrow is expected to introduce legislation to bring a $15 minimum wage to Chicago.
But at least for now, the measure faces a very uphill road, with Mayor Rahm Emanuel believed to favor some increase but not one of that size.
News of tomorrow's development came from Ald. Roderick Sawyer, 6th, who in a conference call with reporters today said that the measure raising the rate from the current $8.25 statewide figure would be phased in over time.
Mr. Sawyer did not provide further details but suggested that small businesses might be given more time to adapt than large companies.
He said "about 10" aldermen will co-sponsor the ordinance, most of them members of the City Council's progressive caucus. Another member of that group, Rick Munoz, 22nd, said he believes that, once introduced, the measure eventually will get support "in the high teens."
"In the high teens" is not enough to pass a bill in the 50-member City Council, where 26 votes are needed for a majority.
Mr. Emanuel last week appointed eight other aldermen to a panel that will recommend within 45 days how much to hike the minimum wage.
In announcing that move, the mayor did not say how much the wage should go up, only that it should rise because "Chicagoans deserve a raise." But, given Mr. Emanuel's extensive backing from business as he nears re-election, my suspicion is that he will end up favoring a hike that's less than that pushed by the Sawyer group. That would allow Mr. Emanuel to present himself as a moderate of sorts — someone who's for the working person but not an extremist.
Mr. Sawyer's announcement came at an event at which Raise Chicago, an advocacy group, released a report suggesting that a $15 minimum wage would bring substantial benefits.
Specifically, it said, the hike would boost wages in the city by a collective $1.5 billion, stimulating economic activity that would create 5,300 new jobs and $43 million in new tax revenue, while slashing job turnover rates "as much as 80 percent."
The move for an increase in the Illinois minimum wage is stalled, at least for now, but the issue has become a very hot subject nationally.
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¿Vale la pena quitarle dinero a la policía para apoyar temas como la vivienda, la educación y la salud?
¿Vale la pena quitarle dinero a la policía para apoyar temas como la vivienda, la educación y la salud?
Un nuevo informe analiza el concepto de 'desinversión de la policía'. La controversial idea es fomentada por activistas...
Un nuevo informe analiza el concepto de 'desinversión de la policía'. La controversial idea es fomentada por activistas latinos y afroestadounidenses, buscando menos discriminación y más apoyo a las minorías.
Lea el artículo completo aquí.
La Reserva Federal debe ser un reflejo de nuestras comunidades
La Reserva Federal debe ser un reflejo de nuestras comunidades
Ocho años después del inicio de la Gran Recesión, a las comunidades de color todavía les cuesta recuperarse. La tasa de...
Ocho años después del inicio de la Gran Recesión, a las comunidades de color todavía les cuesta recuperarse. La tasa de desempleo de los afroamericanos a nivel nacional es de casi 9%, más del doble que la tasa de 4.3% de los estadounidenses de raza blanca, y entre los latinos es un lamentable 6.1%.
Las comunidades que siguen afectadas por la recesión han notado estas disparidades y han llevado sus reclamos directamente a la Reserva Federal, pues dada la facultad de esta de modificar la tasa de interés, sus medidas influyen enormemente en el desempleo y los salarios. En los últimos dos años, una coalición de líderes comunitarios, sindicatos y trabajadores mal remunerados se han quejado de la política y dirección de la Reserva Federal, que desde hace mucho tiempo opera fuera de la vista del público.
Pero eso está empezando a cambiar a medida que queda cada vez más claro que la recuperación sigue siendo enormemente dispareja. Hoy en día, se critica cada vez más a la Reserva Federal por no hacer lo suficiente para ayudar a las comunidades de color a recuperarse.
Este mes, más de 100 miembros del Congreso enviaron una carta a la Reserva Federal, con la cual se sumaron a las quejas y exigieron más diversidad racial, económica y sexual. Actualmente, en el sistema de la Reserva Federal predominan los hombres blancos y miembros del sector financiero, quienes están más protegidos de los efectos que persisten de la recesión.
Un informe reciente del Center for Popular Democracy señaló que un descomunal 83% de los miembros de la Reserva Federal son blancos, en comparación con 63% de todos los estadounidenses. Ni un solo presidente regional es latino o de raza negra. De hecho, nunca en la historia de la Reserva Federal ha habido un presidente regional afroamericano. Es más, solo 11% de ellos provienen de grupos comunitarios, sindicatos o el entorno académico, y casi 40% provienen del sector financiero.
Esto es un problema. Si casi todos los encargados de dictar la política son banqueros blancos, y no se oyen las voces de las mujeres, minorías y representantes de grupos de trabajadores y consumidores, se desatenderán las necesidades de dichos grupos.
Hillary Clinton, quien se tiene previsto sea la candidata demócrata a la presidencia, se ha unido a las quejas y ha dicho públicamente que si la eligen, se esforzaría por remplazar a los banqueros de los directorios de la Reserva Federal con más miembros latinos y afroamericanos.
Por fin se está cuestionando a una de las instituciones menos trasparentes pero vitalmente importantes del país. Ya que la Reserva Federal se dispone a tomar una decisión sumamente importante en junio con respecto a las tasas de interés, miles en todo el país seguirán exigiendo decisiones que beneficien a todos los estadounidenses, no solo a una porción privilegiada de la población. Ya que los latinos y otras comunidades en desventaja en todo el país siguen sufriendo las consecuencias de la recesión, no se puede dejar que la Reserva Federal siga operando a puerta cerrada.
By Rubén Lucio
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