MARKETS TO FED: SEE YOU NEXT YEAR! — Asia followed Wall Street higher on hopes the Fed might take weak jobs data into account and wait until next year to hike rates. … Reuters: “Fading expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year and a bounce in oil and commodity prices helped lift Asian stocks to two-week highs on Tuesday …

“‘One of the two big persistent concerns has faded, so investors are taking risks,’ said Masashi Oda, senior investment officer at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, referring to expectations of a near-term Fed hike. … Japanese shares garnered further momentum from speculation that the Bank of Japan might expand its massive stimulus program to support the flagging economy”http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/06/us-global-markets-idUSKCN0S001I20151006

M.M. SIDEBAR — Seems like wishful thinking. The FOMC is almost certain to hit the liftoff button by December unless jobs growth really falls off a cliff, which appears unlikely based on other data. It remains possible that both August and September jobs figures will get revised higher. And even a slightly sub-200K pace is enough to keep unemployment dropping to what the Fed generally considers full employment (though nobody actually knows exacly what full employment is). Of course a messy debt limit fight actually could push the Fed off into 2016 but it would likely take markets down with it.

“FED UP” PROTESTERS TO HIT PHILLY — POLITICO's Zachary Warmbrodt: “Activists lobbying against a Federal Reserve interest rate increase as part of the so-called ‘Fed Up’ campaign are planning to hold a protest targeting new Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president Patrick Harker on Tuesday afternoon. Around 15-20 people including workers, small business owners and clergy are expected to participate in the protest, which is aimed at pressuring Harker to meet with the coalition and take a tour of low-income neighborhoods …

“Kendra Brooks, who leads the local Fed Up coalition and is an organizer for Action United, is attending Harker's event but says she has been urging him to meet with more members of the community beyond the heads of non-profits and corporations … Brooks tried to get a commitment from Harker at the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, and their chat is on YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h-GN7cHDAc

WILL HILLARY FLIP FLOP ON TPP? — POLITICO's Victoria Guida: “Hillary Clinton has presented herself as a skeptic of the biggest trade deal in history, saying this summer that ‘we should prepared to walk away’ from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership unless it boosts Americans' wages and national security. But with a deal announced Monday after months of backstage wrangling, Clinton will be under intense pressure to take a stance.

“The deal is one of the most ambitious items left on President Barack Obama's White House bucket list. But his former secretary of state owns it too, even though she has expressed increasing ambivalence about its details and could soon disown it outright, as some in her circle have suggested. … [R]eacting to the polarizing TPP deal is one of the most excruciating policy decisions of her campaign thus far - and far more politically perilous with Democratic primary voters than her backing of Obama's Iran deal.” http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/hillary-clinton-trade-dilemma-214456

BIGGEST TPP WINNER: JAPANESE AUTO MAKERS — Per Bloomberg’s list of winners under the trade deal: “Japanese car and auto-parts makers may be the biggest winners, as they get cheaper access to the U.S., the industry’s biggest export market” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/tpp-trade-deal-who-stands-to-benefit-suffer-in-asia-pacific

FIRST LOOK: “TAX HAVEN SEX MANSION” — Can't resist a headline like that, eh? Bloomberg Businessweek piece up at 7:00 a.m. by Zeke Faux “investigates how Abe Zeines and Muir Hurwitz, two sons of an ultra-religious Jewish neighborhood in Brooklyn piloted a shady new kind of finance — ‘merchant cash advance’ — made a fortune, and then saw it all come to an end.” The two now live in a "tax-haven sex mansion in Puerto Rico.” As one does. https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AP5w7epl1Xo/zeke-faux

LITAN RESPONDS — Bob Litan writes in FORTUNE: “Sen. Warren clearly disagrees with our study, but rather than address its reasoning and facts, she claimed my disclosure was vague (which it was not) and that I was misusing my non-resident perch at Brookings by identifying that position in a footnote (a newly established Brookings rule of which I was unaware but promised Brookings I would not run afoul of again), though I never mentioned my Brookings affiliation at the hearing. …

“I can only speculate why Sen. Warren has been so interested in our research, but I suspect it is because, even with its disclosed sponsor, the study exposed two major weaknesses in Labor’s proposal — which the Department may correct when it issues its final rule. But if it does not, these two points, at least in my view, make the rule susceptible to being overturned by a court as being arbitrary and capricious (or failing a benefit-cost test) if it is legally challenged” http://fortune.com/2015/10/05/elizabeth-warren-robert-litan-u-s-department-of-labor/

Litan’s pithy email response to M.M. on the whole affair: “Life in the big city.”

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING — Crazy Monday Night Football game. The Lions had a surprising road victory over the Seahawks in their grasp only to have Kam Chancellor poke the ball out of Calvin Johnson’s hands at the goal line. The Seahawks then illegally batted the ball out of the end zone for the touchback but the refs missed it. Should have been Lions ball at the goal line. Crushing blow. Massive officiating mistake. Email me at bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter (like Kam Chancellor does!) @morningmoneyben.

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES — Adam Behsudi on the TPP currency side deal that Congress might not like – [https://www.politicopro.com/financial-services/story/2015/10/pro-trade-tppcurrency-behsudi-056469] and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m.-- please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600or info@politicopro.com

** A message from Grant Thornton LLP: The tax code puts U.S. companies at a disadvantage. Congress can’t address the problem if it excludes pass-throughs from an innovation box or tax reform. Congress should lower the effective business tax rates equitably for all U.S. businesses. https://www.grantthornton.com/issues/library/articles/public-policy/2015/policy-issues/support-the-BER.aspx?utm_medium=ad-partnership&utm_campaign=public-policy-issues&utm_term=Public-policy&utm_content=article **

BLOOMBERG EVENT TODAY — The Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit takes place in New York, London and Hong Kong featuring Tom Steyer, Mike Bloomberg, Bill Ackman, Cliff Asness, Barry Diller, Blythe Masters and more https://www.bloomberglive.com/markets-most-influential/new-york/agenda/

SOFTBALL REPORT: FERC TAKES THINK TANK CROWN — Per AEI’s Michael Pratt: “FERC defeated the defending champs AEI 13-7 in the Think Tank Softball League Championships in a game under the lights in a field by Pentagon City. Congrats to the winning team - over 40 teams are part of the league.”

POSTCARD FROM THE NEW YORKER FESTIVAL — POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman reports: “Homeland” actor Damian Lewis told the New Yorker festival on Saturday that he's met with hedge fund managers like Bill Ackman and Dan Loeb to prepare for his upcoming new show about Wall Street called "Billions" (on which Andrew Ross Sorkin is an executive producer).

He asked the hedgies: "Give me your intellectual defense of being a hedge fund guy, of shorting companies and the one thing they could never really persuade me of, was that playing to a moral code that we might all conventionally understand, it wasn't possible for them to justify what they do. But if they just ever so slightly shifted the goal posts and created a new moral reality for themselves, which is essentially that as long as I don't break the law and as long as the game exists, I'm here to play the game and everything is fine."

BETTER MARKETS’ FUNDING QUESTIONED — National Review’s Brendan Bordelon goes long on hedge fund manager Michael Masters’ funding of pro-financial reform group Better Markets.” http://www.nationalreview.com/article/425063/elizabeth-warrens-wall-street-double-standard-brendan-bordelon

Better Markets’ Dennis Kelleher emails: “Wall Street has been trying to shut down, shut up or smear Better Markets since it was founded five years ago. Wall Street has little tolerance for anyone willing to stand up to them or who can’t be bought.

“Better Markets’ independence and effectiveness on the public’s behalf is what gets under Wall Street’s skin and why it has been shopping a fabricated story for months to anyone in the media who would listen. … [T]he story is so factually wrong it is laughable, as detailed here https://www.bettermarkets.com/blog/fact-sheet-better-markets%E2%80%99-response-wall-street%E2%80%99s-latest-attack”.

M.M. SIDEBAR — Anyone who knows Kelleher (agree or disagree with him on issues) knows he wouldn't be shilling for some hedge fund guy looking to tilt stock prices. But in an era when Bob Litan can get dumped from Bookings over a fully-disclosed source of research funding, everything seems to be fair game.

TOUGH ROAD FOR TPP IN CONGERSS — WP’s David Nakamura: “President Obama hailed the historic 12-nation Pacific Rim trade deal … as an accord that ‘reflects America’s values,’ but within hours the administration had turned from the negotiating table to selling the agreement on Capitol Hill, a reflection of the harsh political climate the controversial pact is expected to face in Congress. Obama pledged that [TPP] … would open new markets for U.S. goods and services and establish rules of international commerce that give ‘our workers the fair shot at success they deserve.’

“But almost immediately there were signs of the tough fight ahead to win final ratification from Congress next year. Lawmakers from both parties criticized the pact as falling short in crucial areas, raising the prospect that the White House could lose the support of allies who had backed the president’s trade push earlier this year" http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/deal-reached-on-pacific-rim-trade-pact/2015/10/05/7c567f00-6b56-11e5-b31c-d80d62b53e28_story.html

SHARP PRICE INCREASES DRIVE DRUG COMPANY REVENUES — WSJ’s Joseph Walker: “Demand for a drug called Avonex has declined every year for the past 10. Not a problem for its manufacturer. U.S. revenue from the drug has more than doubled in that time, to $2 billion last year. The key: repeated price increases. The multiple sclerosis drug’s maker, Biogen Inc., raised its price an average of 16 percent a year throughout the decade — 21 times in all.

“It is an example of drug companies’ unusual ability to boost prices beyond the inflation rate to drive their revenue, even when demand for the drugs doesn’t cooperate. A result of this pricing power is that across 30 top-selling drugs sold by pharmacies, U.S. revenue growth has far outpaced demand in the past five years … Revenue growth averaged 61 percent, three times the increase in prescriptions” http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-prescription-drug-makers-price-increases-drive-revenue-1444096750

BERNANKE ADMITS MISLEADING ON LEHMAN — NYT’s Andrew Ross Sorkin: “It is astonishing to hear a former Federal Reserve chairman acknowledge that he may have misled the public as part of an agreement with another senior government official about one of the most crucial moments in recent financial history — and that he now questions whether he should have “been more forthcoming.” But that is what Ben S. Bernanke says in his new memoir …

“That crucial moment? The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Mr. Bernanke, in perhaps the most candid explanation of Lehman’s 2008 collapse, writes that he and Henry M. Paulson, then the treasury secretary, purposely obfuscated when asked about Lehman’s demise early on, allowing a narrative to develop that the government had purposely let the firm fail

“In congressional testimony immediately after Lehman’s collapse, Paulson and I were deliberately quite vague when discussing whether we could have saved Lehman,’ Mr. Bernanke writes. ‘But we had agreed in advance to be vague because we were intensely concerned that acknowledging our inability to save Lehman would hurt market confidence and increase pressure on other vulnerable firms.’” https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/business/dealbook/in-ben-bernankes-memoir-a-candid-look-at-lehman-brothers-collapse.html?_r=0

GOOGLE BUYS INTO SYMPHONY — FT’s Joe Rennison and Richard Waters: “Alphabet, Google’s renamed parent company, is set to become the latest investor to back Symphony, joining a host of big banks in their attempt to dislodge Bloomberg’s dominant position in Wall Street messaging. Born out of the 2013 snooping scandal, where it came to light that Bloomberg News reporters had spied on bankers using its ubiquitous terminals, Symphony claims to offer a more secure way for people to communicate with each other.

“The service officially launched on September 15, unveiling tie-ups with McGraw Hill Financial, which will supply financial information from S&P Capital IQ, and News Corp’s Dow Jones unit, which will provide a live news feed to the platform. Symphony and Alphabet declined to comment. People familiar with the matter said the deal was yet to be finalised but one confirmed a WSJ.com report that the new funding round would value Symphony at about $650m.”https://www.ft.com/content/32dbcf1a-6ba1-11e5-aca9-d87542bf8673

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR —

FIRST LOOK: MARANTIS JOINS VISA — Per release going out this morning: “Visa … day announced the appointment of former Acting U.S. Trade Representative Demetrios Marantis as Senior Vice President, Global Government Relations. Marantis joins Visa from Square, where he led global policy, government, and regulatory affairs. Marantis will report directly to William Sheedy, Executive Vice President, Corporate Strategy, M&A, and Government Relations at Visa Inc., and be responsible for all facets of Visa’s government relations activities

JOIN US — WOMEN RULE: TAKING RISKS AND TAKING CHARGE Women Rule live event series returns Wednesday morning at 8 am with “Women Rule: Taking Risks and Taking Charge,” a series of conversations with women who have braved the odds in their lives and careers. Vian Dakhil, Iraqi MP and voice of the Yazidi people being attacked by ISIS and her sister, Dr. Deelan Dakhil, the co-director of the Sinjar Foundation will headline the event. Featured speakers also include Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.); Sarah LaFleur, Founder and CEO, MM. LaFleur, and former White House NSA and EVP of MacAndrews and Forbes, Frances Fragos Townsend. RSVP: http://www.politico.com/events/2015/10/women-rule-taking-risks-and-taking-charge-213943

NOW AVAILABLE: POLITICO PRO LEGISLATIVE COMPASS — POLITICO Pro, POLITICO’s premium subscription service, has released a first-of-its kind legislative data analytics and decision-making tool that helps policy professionals manage and act on legislation. Leveraging features such as a personalized dashboard, virtual whip count, bill text comparison and 20 years of data, users will not only save time but benefit from customizing and cross-referencing information, enabling them to make smarter and faster decisions. Schedule your demo today.

** A message from Grant Thornton LLP: When Congress fails to act, businesses suffer. More than 50 popular tax provisions expired at the end of 2014, including the R&D credit. Congress’s indecision on these provisions is impeding business planning and stifling growth. According to a Grant Thornton survey of top financial executives, more than half of companies that use the provisions do all their planning under the assumption that the extension will not occur. That’s a huge blow to the effectiveness of the provisions and a barrier to growth. The R&D credit is a major driver of entrepreneurial activity and high-paying jobs. Congress needs to act soon to reinstate these provisions and to make the R&D credit permanent. Find out what else Congress could do to strengthen the R&D credit and view survey findings at http://gt-us.co/1iOXJW5

Source: Politico