CPD IN THE NEWS

Eric S. Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, has been famous as an inflation dove – until now.

Being a dove means he almost always favors smaller and fewer interest rate increases by the Fed, in the hope that more money from the spigot will lead to more jobs and wage increases for workers. Rosengren and Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, have led the dove charge in recent years.

But on Wednesday, Rosengren dissented when the central bank postponed a rate hike at least until December. That surprised his fellow dovish liberals because, to oversimplify, lower rates tend to help workers, while higher rates, making money harder for borrowers to get, can protect accumulated wealth by warding off inflation.

The pro-hike dissent was his first in almost 10 years as a Fed governor; he has certainly opposed rate hikes and urged faster cuts, sometimes with formal dissents.

The move ignited debate not along the usual lines of doves and hawks – those who favor rate hikes to control inflation even before it appears – but between doves and doves, in much the same way that, for example, foreign trade deals divide liberal Democrats.

All of this might seem like an esoteric spat to Joe Grabasandwich, as my old politics professor used to say. But it lies at the heart of how the central bank can prod the economy to help more people, sooner. And it matters especially in Connecticut, where growth is slow even in good times, making rate hikes hurt worse than elsewhere.

On Friday, Rosengren explained his dissent in a public statement in which he said the economy is stronger than many people think.

"By 2019, I expect the unemployment rate to have declined below 4.5 percent," Rosengren said in the statement. "While I have a long track record of advocating for policy that supports robust labor market conditions, that is below the rate that I believe is sustainable in the long run."

What Rosengren is saying is that a 4.5 percent unemployment rate is so low that it would heat up the economy to the point of inflation above 2 percent, and that's the big no-no the Fed is trying to prevent – a clear charge to anyone who remembers the nightmare of the 1970s.

Taking the medicine of a one-quarter of 1 percent rate increase now, immediately, will, in his view, allow for relatively low rates over the long haul. That's part of the so-called soft landing from an expansion that is so hard to achieve.

Not so fast, left-leaning economists say. Or rather, not so slow. In the big picture, economist Jared Bernstein said, workers only see wage increases when the unemployment rate is at or near full employment – as we saw in the Sept. 15 Census report. The report showed a robust 5.2 percent 2015 jump in the income of households at the middle of the scale.

Did Eric Rosengren, of all people, turn his back on this?

"I've always considered him sympathetic to my view, which is that the last thing you'd want to do is tap the brakes and slow down job growth at a time when the economy is finally starting to...help people who have been left behind," said Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and author of a new book, "The Reconnection Agenda: Reuniting Growth and Prosperity."

Bernstein, a former chief economist for Vice President Joe Biden, doesn't believe Rosengren is suddenly looking out for capital at the expense of labor. Rather, the issue comes down to the murky relationship between inflation and unemployment.

The financial media widely reported Rosengren's 4.5 percent jobless figure Friday. But in itself, it's not news, considering the rate is now 4.9 percent. The real news, Bernstein said, is that Rosengren thinks he can tell when too hot is too hot, without data.

Rosengren, in a visit to New Britain in April, explained that the "natural" or "full" rate of employment, the level that delivers the maximum benefits to the economy without accelerating inflation, will be reached when the jobless rate is 4.7 percent.

The trouble with that view, Bernstein said, is that "it is widely understood by people who look very closely at this question that we cannot reliably estimate that rate within 2 points one way or another."

There are too many variables in play, such as productivity and distribution of income, so, why risk punishing workers by applying certainty to a mystery?

Rosengren explained, in his statement Friday: "My goal is to achieve a long and durable recovery – a sustainable expansion...I believe a significant overshoot of the full employment level could shorten, rather than lengthen, the duration of this recovery."

As I noted when Rosengren visited in April, his view of the economy, literally, from his downtown Boston office, is full of cranes in the torrid market of a red-hot city. Is that coloring his fear of inflation? Maybe.

No one thinks another quarter-point increase in the Fed's overnight borrowing rate, after last December's uptick, will make a big difference by itself. But the signal the Fed sends can and does move markets and the economy.

"If we want this recovery to reach down and help people it has yet to reach, that's inconsistent with even a small rate increase," Bernstein said. "Where's the inflation?"

"It's gradually coming up," Rosengren told a Quincy, Mass. audience on Sept. 9.

That's the $15 trillion debate as the U.S. economy either is, or is not, nearing its speed limit.

By Dan Haar

Source

BEHIND CLOSED DOORS: National Federation of Independent Business President Juanita Duggan, fresh off her secret special-interests meeting with Donald Trump last week, has some advice for downtowners scratching their heads about how to interact with the unconventional campaign: Treat it like any other. "We’re doing what we would do with any campaign: asking questions and letting them know our agenda," she told PI. "It was an extremely substantive meeting with the candidate himself. That speaks for itself."

A4A's Nick Calio, the only other known attendee, wasn't available for comment, according to a spokesman. (Both Duggan and Calio contributed to Jeb Bush's campaign, for the record.) Other major trade groups, including the Chamber of Commerce, API and the National Association of Manufacturers, weren't invited. The New York Times reported that Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), who's advising Trump, invited people for whom he has “great respect.” Trump's spokeswoman didn't answer a request for comment.

MACK'S BACK: Connie Mack, the former Florida congressman who recently left Levick, registered to lobby for DCI Group on behalf of Puerto Rico bondholders. Mack declined to specify which investors, but he previously worked for DCI on behalf of hedge fund BlueMountain Capital Management on its dispute with the island commonwealth. DCI Group is the grassroots/"AstroTurf" specialist that The New York Times said helped coordinate a lobbying campaign purportedly comprising retiree bondholders.

Mack criticized the current bill on Puerto Rico's debt, telling PI it features an unconstitutional stay and a "bailout in the form of a super Chapter 9."

NO DEAL: Pharma giants Pfizer and Allergan have called off their $160 billion merger after Treasury released new anti-inversion rules Monday, Pro Tax’s Bernie Becker reports. Pfizer was planning to move its legal address to Ireland, and the deal would have been the largest in a series of mergers allowing companies to take foreign addresses, reducing their tax bills. Conservative groups, including Americans for Tax Reform and 13 others, have called on Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to address the issue through tax reform instead of regulations. http://politico.pro/1S241li

— Roberti Global, Tarplin Downs & Young and Ogilvy Government Relations lobbied for Pfizer on inversions, and SKDKnickerbocker was also advising the drugmaker. Van Heuvelen Strategies represents Allergan on international taxes.

STATUS UPDATES:

— The Center for American Progress named Liz Kennedy its new director of government and democratic reform, after having served as counsel and campaign strategist at Demos, working on voting rights, money in politics and corporate accountability, among other issues.

— Rob Hill, who most recently directed the field efforts at the Small Business Administration, joins Precision Strategies as the director of mobilization and campaign management. The firm also hired Sam Libowsky from Starcom MediaVest Group as principal for paid media and Nathaniel Lubin, Obama campaign veteran and former White House director of the office and digital strategy, as of counsel, focusing on paid media and digital strategy.

— Vernessa Pollard and Veleka Peeples-Dyer were named co-leaders of McDermott Will & Emery's expanded FDA practice. Pollard came over from Arnold & Porter last month, and the firm is planning to add at least three more lawyers to the group this year.

NEW BUSINESS: Cassidy & Associates is now lobbying for Patagonia on coastal resiliency, infrastructure, clean water and watershed restoration. The lobbying firm also signed Delmarva Group, the law offices of Eugene Vamos, Geos Institute, Osen LLC, Parts Life and Steadman Philippon Research Institute.

— McBee Strategic Consulting started a partnership with government and public affairs firm Tendo Consulting in London.

GRAY AREA: The House Ethics Committee will not conduct a full investigation into allegations against Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), POLITICO’s John Bresnahan reports, after the Office of Congressional Ethics found several potential violations. Grayson has been accused of receiving compensation from a hedge fund and other entities he controlled while in Congress. Though the committee will continue to review these allegations, it is not required to act further. Grayson, who is running for Senate, has accused his primary opponent, Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, of instigating OCE’s probe, and has called for an investigation of OCE and its congressional staff. http://politi.co/1PTKdc4

COMING ATTRACTIONS: Chuck Schumer, the incoming Senate Democratic leader, will be introducing former Sen. Blanche Lincoln for her award at the Bryce Harlow Foundation dinner later this month. Former House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp, now with PwC, will be introducing the current chairman, Kevin Brady. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) will deliver a special tribute to the late Bryce Harlow. There will also be taped tributes expected to come from a prominent U.S. ambassador, top congressional leaders and a former president.

— Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) hosted a book-signing party for her daughter Stefany's book, "Ellie & Coach," at the townhouse of 3 Click Solutions' Patrick Murphy. The book celebrates her daughter Ellie's struggle with diabetes with the help of her family and service dog. Attending were Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.).

KASICH'S CASE: Allies of Gov. John Kasich will hold a large meeting this afternoon to brief supporters and donors, reports POLITICO’s Anna Palmer. The event will be headlined by Ohio Sen. Rob Portman. Also slated to attend: Kasich senior strategist John Weaver, Republican operative Charlie Black and Bob Rusbuldt, co-chair of the governor’s steering committee and head of the Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America, and more, in the American Trucking Association’s townhouse. http://politi.co/1RE1ED2

COACH LUNTZ: After Republican polling firm Luntz Global, founded by consultant Frank Luntz, asked CEOs across the country about their views on traditionally left-leaning policies, they found that the majority supported raising the minimum wage, increasing paid parental leave requirements and increasing paid sick leave, BuzzFeed's Cora Lewis reports. Managing Director David Merritt has since coached business lobbies, like the Council of State Chambers of Commerce, on how to reconcile these differences. But left-leaning advocacy groups, like the Center for Popular Democracy, say business lobbies are ignoring their members' views. http://bzfd.it/1SPBhJq

ON THE HILL: The Alzheimer’s Association is bringing more than 1,200 people, it's largest-ever fly-in, to the Hill to share their personal stories and ask Congress for increased funding for medical research around the disease, and to pass the HOPE for Alzheimer’s Act. They have more than 450 meetings scheduled. Retiring Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) will receive the Association’s Lifetime Achievement Award, and Sens. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.) will each receive a Humanitarian Award.

DOCTOR, DOCTOR: Doctors for America, the American Medical Association, American Public Health Association, the American Association for the Advancement of Science and 137 other groups are calling for Congress to provide the CDC with funding for research into the causes of gun violence and how to prevent it, reports Pro Health Care’s Dan Diamond. http://politi.co/1QmvbhP

MEMORIAM: Cindy O'Malley, a government affairs counselor at K&L Gates, died March 30. She was a Robert Davis (R-Mich.) and House Armed Services Committee alum. Services have been scheduled for 11 a.m. on Saturday, April 9, 2016 at St. Ann Catholic Church in Arlington, Va. In lieu of flowers, the family asks for contributions to either American Cancer Society or the Girls & Boys Club-Camp O'Malley in Grand Rapids, Mich.

NEW PAC REGISTRATIONS:

Brand New Congress (Non-Qualified Non-Party, Unauthorized)

Florida Voters Project (Non-Qualified Non-Party With Non-Contribution Account, Unauthorized)

NAFSA PAC (Non-Qualified Non-Party, Unauthorized)

I'm Bringing Sexy PAC (Independent Expenditure-Only Committee, Unauthorized)

My Vote Matters Now

JOINT FUNDRAISING COMMITTEES:

Emily Cain Victory Fund

Future Focus

Kennedy-Sinema Victory Fund

NEW LOBBYING REGISTRATIONS:

Armory Hill Advocates (formerly known as Rawlson Policy Group): PANTHERx

Arnold & Porter LLP: Rebiotix, Inc.

Capitol Connections, LLC: Florida Aquaculture Association

CapView Associates LLC (doing business as CapView Strategies): Pfizer Inc.

Cassidy & Associates, Inc.: Delmarva

Cassidy & Associates, Inc.: Geos Institute

Cassidy & Associates, Inc.: Law Offices of Eugene Vamos

Cassidy & Associates, Inc.: Osen LLC

Cassidy & Associates, Inc.: Parts Life, Inc.

Cassidy & Associates, Inc.: Patagonia

Cassidy & Associates, Inc.: Steadman Philippon Research Institute

CG Technologies Inc.: Torch Technologies, Inc.

Lincoln Policy Group: American Trucking Association

Lincoln Policy Group: Cognizant Technology Solutions

Lincoln Policy Group: National Park Hospitality Association

News Corporation: News Corporation

The Ickes and Enright Group, Inc.: Deaf Professionals Arts Network

Third Dimension Strategies, Inc.: Computer Science Education Coalition

NEW LOBBYING TERMINATIONS:

Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld: PhRMA

Hannegan Landau Poersch Advocacy, LLC: Delaware North Companies Travel Hospitality Services, Inc.

Law Offices of George Harris, LLC: City of Dothan

By ISAAC ARNSDORF

With help from Cogan Schneier and Brianna Gurciullo

Source

Gotham Gazette - November 24, 2014, by Samar Khurshid - At a hearing Monday, the New York City Council's Committee on Governmental Operations approved the latest drafts of two bills that enhance the responsibility of city agencies to conduct voter registration and a resolution calling for the State Legislature to pass similar legislation.

These measures are an attempt by the Council to improve the compliance of City agencies with Local Law 29, also known as the Pro-Voter Law, which was passed in 2000. The law requires 19 city agencies to handle voter registration applications for customers.

The new legislation is headed to the full Council for a vote on Tuesday and then, if passed as expected, to the desk of Mayor Bill de Blasio. The bills expand the mandate of the Pro-Voter law to seven additional agencies and create a standard for enforcing the law, including required semi-annual reports from participating agencies. Implementation of the existing law has proven to be a problem, with city agencies failing to uphold their responsibilities to offer registration forms to New Yorkers doing other business with the City.

The accompanying resolution calls upon the State Legislature to augment existing agency-assisted registration laws to include codes on registration forms that would help track agency performance and registration statistics.

Council Member Ben Kallos, chair of what he called the "good government committee," introduced Intro 493 A which expands scope of the Pro-Voter law and sets a deadline of December 1, 2015 for agencies to integrate their forms with voter registration.

The second bill, Intro 356 A, which establishes reporting requirements for the agencies, and the accompanying resolution, were introduced by Council Member Jumaane Williams.

"The last election was abysmal," Williams said of voter turnout in response to questions from Gotham Gazette. Stating that the city and state are falling behind in civic participation, he said, "This should be an issue that all parties - Republicans, Democrats, third parties - every party should be working to increase participation."

The push for increased voter registration began in July with Mayor de Blasio's Directive 1, which ordered agencies under the Pro-Voter law mandate to create plans for implementing the law. Then, in October, the City Council introduced the two new bills in response to a report released by a coalition of good government groups which showed the City's lax compliance with Local Law 29.

According to the report, 84 percent of clients at 14 of these agencies were not provided registration applications when they should have been. Additionally, only 2 out of 5 applicants with limited English proficiency were given translated applications, and agents were not trained in the application process.The report was compiled by the Pro-Voter Law Coalition, comprised of the Center for Popular Democracy (CPD), the Brennan Center for Justice at the NYU School of Law, Citizens Union of the City of New York, and the New York Public Interest Research Group (NYPIRG). Their investigation was aided by the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund.

The report's importance is highlighted by the fact that over 30 percent of New Yorkers who were interviewed at the agencies were not registered to vote.

The de Blasio administration initially rejected the two bills over privacy concerns and on the grounds that they came too close on the heels of Directive 1 and wishing to see agencies given more time to comply. Taking those concerns into consideration, changes were made to Williams' bill on reporting mandates. Williams disagreed with the administration but eventually came around to ensure changes were made in the proposal which will protect applicants' information while still allowing the Board of Elections to track registration data from agencies.

"I'm expecting (the) resolution to have a serious impact in Albany," said Council Member Kallos to Gotham Gazette. "Whether it's the Assembly or the Senate, we can all agree that government works better when we measure what its doing and this will take a step towards that."

Representatives of the good government groups that authored the report also testified at the hearing. Steven Carbo, director of Voting Rights and Democracy Initiatives at CPD praised the proposals, asserting, "Likely hundreds of thousands, if not millions of eligible voters were never given the opportunity to register to vote over the years, perpetuating regrettably low rates of voter registration in New York particularly among lower income, of color and immigrant citizens," he said.

Peggy Farber, legislative counsel for Citizens Union, called the proposals "meaningful steps to improve the pro-voter law, to codify the important work of the administration."

On Tuesday, the bills and the resolution will head to the full Council for a vote at the Stated Meeting, where they are very likely to pass.

Source

IN OCTOBER 2016, Ady Barkan — a California-based activist at the Center for Popular Democracy — was diagnosed with ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease.

Last year, he was going for long jogs along the Santa Barbara coast. Today, he doesn’t have the strength to cut a piece of meat at the dinner table or pick up his 30-pound toddler.

Read the full article here.