Campaign News

06.08.2017

Dear Chair Yellen and the Board of Governors,

The end of this year will mark ten years since the beginning of the Great Recession. This recession and the slow recovery that followed was extraordinarily damaging to the livelihoods and financial security of tens of millions of American households. Accordingly, it should provoke a serious reappraisal of the key parameters governing macroeconomic policy.

One of these key parameters is the rate of inflation targeted by the Federal Reserve. In years past, a 2 percent inflation target seemed to give ample leverage with which the Fed could lower real interest rates. But given the evidence that the equilibrium interest rate had fallen substantially even prior to the financial crisis, and that the Fed’s short-term policy rate remained at zero for seven years without sparking any large acceleration of aggregate demand growth, a reassessment of this target seems warranted. Such a reassessment is particularly appropriate when the lack of evidence that moderately higher inflation would harm Americans’ standard of living is juxtaposed with the tremendous evidence that a tighter labor market would improve Americans’ standards of living.

Some Federal Reserve policymakers have acknowledged these shifting realities and indicated their willingness to reconsider the appropriate target level. For example, San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams noted the need for central banks to “adapt policy to changing economic circumstances,” in suggesting a higher inflation target, and Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren cited the different context in which the inflation target was set in emphasizing the need for debate about the right target. (1) (2) In May, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer highlighted the Canadian system of reconsidering the inflation target every five years, saying, “I can envisage – say, in the case of inflation targeting – a procedure in which you change the target or you change the other variables that are involved on some regular basis and through some regular participation.” (3)

The comments made by Fischer, Rosengren, and Williams all underscore the ample evidence that the long-term neutral rate of interest may have fallen. Even if a 2 percent inflation target set an appropriate balance a decade ago, it is increasingly clear that the underlying changes in the economy would mean that, whatever the correct rate was then, it would be higher today. To ensure the future effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing the economy after negative shocks – specifically, to avoid the zero lower bound on the funds rate – this fall in the neutral rate may well need to be met with an increase in the long-run inflation target set by the Fed.

More immediately, new, post-crisis economic conditions suggest that a reiteration of the meaning of the Fed’s current target is in order. In its 2016 statement of long-run goals and strategy, the Federal Open Market Committee wrote: “The Committee would be concerned if inflation were running persistently above or below this objective.” Some FOMC participants, however, appear to instead consider 2 percent a hard ceiling that should never be breached, and justify their decision-making on that basis. It is important that the Federal Reserve makes clear – and operates policy based on – its stated goal that it aims to avoid inflation being either below or above its target.

Economies change over time. Recent decades have seen growing evidence that developed economies have harder times generating faster growth in aggregate demand than in decades past. Policymakers must be willing to rigorously assess the costs and benefits of previously-accepted policy parameters in response to economic changes. One of these key parameters that should be rigorously reassessed is the very low inflation targets that have guided monetary policy in recent decades. We believe that the Fed should appoint a diverse and representative blue ribbon commission with expertise, integrity, and transparency to evaluate and expeditiously recommend a path forward on these questions. We believe such a process will strengthen the Fed as an institution and its conduct of monetary policy, and help ensure wise policymaking for the years and decades to come.

Sincerely,

Dean Baker Center for Economic and Policy Research Laurence Bell Johns Hopkins University Heather Boushey Washington Center for Equitable Growth Josh Bivens Economic Policy Institute Brad DeLong University of California, Berkeley Tim Duy University of Oregon Joseph Gagnon Peterson Institute Narayana Kocherlakota University of Rochester Lawrence Mishel Economic Policy Institute Manuel Pastor University of Southern California William Spriggs Howard University Mark Thoma University of Oregon Valerie Wilson Economic Policy Institute Justin Wolfers University of Michigan Gene Sperling Obama Administration Economist Joseph Stiglitz Columbia University Jared Bernstein Obama Administration Economist David Blanchflower Dartmouth College Jason Furman Peterson Institute Mike Konczal Roosevelt Institute Marc Jarsulic Center for American Progress Michael Madowitz Center for American Progress

 

(1) John Williams, “Monetary Policy in a Low R-Star World,” August 15, 2016.

(2) Sam Fleming, “Inflation Goal May Be Too Low, says Fed’s Rosengren,” Financial Times, April 20, 2015.

(3) Greg Robb, “Fed’s Williams Backs Changing Central Bank’s Strategy to Price-Level Targeting,” Market Watch, May 5, 2017.

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TRADING NOTES: President Obama met with Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet Yellen, but interest rates were apparently not on the agenda.

Obama did not plan to discuss interest rates with Yellen, according to White House press secretary Josh Earnest. He argued such a conversation could undercut the chair's independence in setting monetary policy.

"I would not anticipate that, even in the confidential setting, that the president would have a conversation with the chair of the Fed that would undermine her ability to make these kinds of critical monetary policy decisions independently," Earnest told reporters ahead of the meeting.

The closed-door discussion is instead an opportunity to "trade notes" on broader economic trends in the U.S. and abroad, as well as on a new set of regulations on Wall Street financial firms.

Obama and Yellen talked about the growth outlook, "the state of the labor market, inequality and potential risks to the economy," the White House said after the meeting. The Hill's Jordan Fabian has more: http://bit.ly/25VuzIZ.

HOUSE TO MARKUP PUERTO RICO DEBT BILL: The House Natural Resources Committee will begin on Wednesday to mark up legislation aimed at saving Puerto Rico from a massive debt crisis.

Lawmakers have been working to make significant changes to the measure, which is expected to unveiled as early as Monday night, since the panel released a discussion draft on March 29.

The Puerto Rico measure, which put the island's finances under federal oversight and authorize a restructuring of some of its debt, will need to strike a balance and attract bipartisan support and the backing of the White House to move forward.

LEW MAKES CASE FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP: Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on Monday made the case for the United States to continue its global economic leadership as the administration faces criticism from Donald Trump and other presidential candidates.

"We know that the global landscape of the next century will be very different than that of the post-war era," Lew said in a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations. "And if we want it to work for the American people, we need to embrace new players on the global economic stage and make sure they meet the standards of the system we created, and that we have a strong say in any new standards."

"The worst possible outcome would be to step away from our leadership role and let others fill in behind us," he added. The Hill's Naomi Jagoda fills us in: http://bit.ly/1qjTIwe.

GOLDMAN SACHS SETTLES MORTGAGE PROBE FOR $5 BILLION: Goldman Sachs will pay more than $5 billion to settle charges that it engaged in "serious misconduct" when selling risky mortgages leading up to the 2008 financial collapse.

The $5.06 billion civil settlement also saw the Wall Street giant admit it failed to properly inform investors of the risks in the subprime mortgage securities the bank was selling.

"This resolution holds Goldman Sachs accountable for its serious misconduct in falsely assuring investors that securities it sold were backed by sound mortgages, when it knew that they were full of mortgages that were likely to fail," acting associate attorney general Stuart Delery said in a statement.

One of the government charges, which Goldman has now acknowledged, was that the bank kept internal concerns about the strength of the mortgage market hidden from potential investors. Here's more from The Hill's Peter Schroeder: http://bit.ly/1qjTJQQ.

SANDERS SAYS GOLDMAN'S BUSINESS 'RIGGED': Bernie Sanders charged Monday that the settlement proves Goldman Sachs's business is "based on fraud."

The Justice Department announced Monday that the Wall Street giant would pay over $5 billion to settle charges it sold risky mortgage investments in the lead up to the financial crisis, and didn't tell investors enough about it.

Sanders, who has built his presidential campaign in large part on big bank bashing, said the settlement proves his point.

"What they have just acknowledged to the whole world is that their system ... is based on fraud," he told supporters in New York.

Sanders also complained that the civil settlement did not include any criminal charges, proving the "corruption of our criminal justice system." http://bit.ly/1TNk2Lm

HAPPY MONDAY and welcome to Overnight Finance, where we're wondering why Herbert Hoover gets to join the racing presidents. I'm Sylvan Lane, and here's your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.

Tonight's highlights include securities fraud charges for Texas's attorney general, a trillion-dollar national pension gap and a Tax Day delay.

See something I missed? Let me know at slane@thehill.com or tweet me @SylvanLane. And if you like your newsletter, you can subscribe to it here: http://www.thehill.com/signup/48.

ON TAP TOMORROW:

Senate Finance Committee: Hearing on examining cybersecurity and protecting taxpayer information, 10 a.m

Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services: Hearings to examine proposed budget estimates and justification for fiscal year 2017 for the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission., 10:30 a.m.

House Rules Committee: Business Meeting: H.R. 2666: No Rate Regulation of Broadband Internet Access Act; H.R. 3340: Financial Stability Oversight Council Reform Act; H.R. 3791: To raise the consolidated assets threshold under the small bank holding company policy statement and for other purposes.

Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act expected to be released.

"Getting Her Money's Worth: What Will It Take to Achieve Equal Pay?" discussion featuring Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), 11:45 am.

BERNIE FANS LEFT'S FLAMES AGAINST FED: Liberal activists are putting a target on the Federal Reserve for the 2016 elections, much to the delight of the Bernie Sanders campaign.

Denouncing an agenda that they say tilts toward Wall Street, members of the "Fed Up" coalition on Monday unveiled a set of reforms that would alter how the central bank does business.

"No longer are we focused only on fixing the Fed's monetary policy and internal governance positions," said Ady Barkan, the group's campaign director. "We are now beginning an effort to reform the Federal Reserve itself. Peter Schroeder breaks down the fight: http://bit.ly/23yMSBH.

YOU HAVE THREE MORE DAYS TO PROCRASTINATE: For most people, tax returns are due one week from today.

This year's due date for filing federal individual income tax returns is April 18, not April 15. This is because the District of Columbia is observing Emancipation Day on April 15, which falls on a Friday, according to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

People living in Massachusetts and Maine have until April 19 to file their tax returns because those states observe Patriots' Day on April 18.

Those who are serving in combat zones or contingency operations or become hospitalized due to injuries from their service can have additional time to pay their taxes. Those affected by federally declared disasters might also have more time, the IRS said: http://bit.ly/1Q3tzHk.

AG GROUPS PUSH FOR PACIFIC TRADE DEAL: The nation's farmers and ranchers are putting their weight behind efforts urging Congress to pass a sweeping Asia-Pacific deal this year.

In a letter to congressional leaders on Monday, 225 food and agricultural groups called on lawmakers to move forward on the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership before President Obama leaves office.

"The TPP presents a valuable opportunity for U.S. agriculture; one that we cannot afford to miss," the groups wrote. The Hill's Vicki Needham explains why: http://bit.ly/1S5QCFD.

SEC CHARGES TEXAS ATTORNEY GENERAL: The Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday charged Texas's top law enforcement official with civil securities fraud for allegedly deceiving investors in a computer company.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) received 100,000 shares of Servergy, a Nevada-based technology company, to pitch investors on a server it was selling between 2011 and 2013, according to the SEC complaint. Servergy officials allegedly marketed the server with incorrect information, and Paxton allegedly did not disclose to investors that he would be paid a commission: http://bit.ly/1RPHyG0.

US PUBLIC PENSIONS FACE $3 TRILLION HOLE: The nation's public pension system is facing a $3.4 trillion funding hole that may force cities and states to either cut spending or raise taxes to cover future shortfalls.

The deficit in pension funds is three times more than official figures and is growing, and without an overhaul could weigh on state and local budgets and lead to Detroit-like bankruptcies, according to research reported by the Financial Times.

Joshua Rauh, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who put together the report, told the FT that "the pension problems are threatening to consume state and local budgets in the absence of some major changes."

"It is quite likely that over a 5- to 10-year horizon we are going to see more bankruptcies of cities where the unfunded pension liabilities will play a large role." Here's more from Vicki Needham: http://bit.ly/1Su85op.

CONSERVATIVES FIGHT ENERGY TAX BREAKS IN FAA BILL: Conservative groups that oppose a proposal to include energy tax breaks in the long-term reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration are vowing to take their fight to the House if the Senate moves ahead.

Americans for Prosperity and Freedom Partners said Monday that if the Senate ends up attaching energy tax provisions to the FAA bill, the organizations will ratchet up pressure on lawmakers across the Capitol to oppose the language or pass a clean-extension of FAA.

"If the Senate isn't going to do anything to stop this, we're going to put pressure on the House," Andy Koenig, senior policy advisor at Freedom Partners, said on a press call. "The House is under no obligation to take up a bunch of energy subsidies if they don't want to." The Hill's Melanie Zanona walks us through the battle: http://bit.ly/1RPHrKH.

DEMS CALL FOR GREATER NONBANK MORTGAGE OVERSIGHT: Two Democratic lawmakers are calling on the nation's top consumer protection agency to ramp up its oversight of nonbank mortgage servicers.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) and Rep. Elijah Cummings (Md.) asked the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on Monday to identify all of and collect more data on the growing number of financial institutions other than banks that service mortgages.

Warren and Cummings pointed to recommendations from a non-partisan government watchdog report published Monday. Warren, a long-time financial industry watchdog, and Cummings, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, requested the Government Accountability Office (GAO) study. I'll fill you in on the rest here: http://bit.ly/1Sc3ldc.

Did you know 67% of all job growth comes from small businesses? Read More

NIGHTCAP: Five Starbucks locations in DC will start serving alcohol and "small plates," which is millennial for paying more money for less food: https://www.washingtonian.com/2016/04/08/5-dc-starbucks-will-sell-beer-wine-small-plates-next-week/.

By Sylvan Lane

Source

Milwaukee spends a greater fraction of its general fund on policing than many other major cities. A 2017 report from the Center for Popular Democracy, Law for Black Lives, and Black Youth Project 100, compared 11 other cities and found they devoted 25 to 40 percent of their general fund expenditures to policing — Milwaukee spent 47 percent, or nearly $300 million.

Read the full article here.

Main Street activists and community groups plan to turn up the pressure on the Federal Reserve at an annual conference of the economic elite this month, in hopes of convincing the central bank to maintain its support of the American recovery.

The campaign, known as Fed Up, is staging a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that will run at the same time as the invite-only gathering of the world’s top financial and economic policymakers and academics hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The campaign’s organizers said they expect at least 50 people -- ranging from workers to economists -- to attend the so-called “teach in,” which will be held in the same hotel as the Fed’s gathering. Topics include income inequality, efforts to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour and whether the Fed should invest in municipal bonds.

The conference in Jackson Hole comes as the Fed nears an historic crossroads. The central bank has kept the target for its benchmark interest at zero since 2008, a legacy of the darkest days of the financial crisis and a reflection of the lumbering economic recovery since then. Over the past year and a half, amid faster economic growth and a rapid improvement in the job market, the Fed has taken small steps toward reducing its support.

But the big decision to raise its target interest rate still looms ahead, and Fed officials are seriously considering whether to finally abandon its crisis-era stance at its meeting next month.

“For inexplicable reasons, the Fed seems primed to intentionally slow down the economy in September,” said Ady Barkan, campaign director for Fed Up. “ The real crisis in America is stagnant wages and a lack of good jobs. We are going to Jackson Hole to remind the Fed of this stark reality: slowing the economy down now will leave African-American and Hispanic communities permanently mired in a Great Recession.”

The Fed Up campaign made history last year when about a dozen demonstrators showed up at the conference to draw attention to the country’s uneven economic progress, particularly among minority communities. The protest led to meetings with top Fed officials over the past year, starting off with Kansas City Fed President Esther George, one of the central bank’s most vocal supporters of tightening the reins on the economy, who met with the group for two hours in Jackson Hole. In the fall, Fed Chair Janet Yellenhosted the group, and organizers have reached out to other officials since then with mixed success.

The campaign is returning this year with a more concrete agenda and the backing of a growing number of established left-leaning academics and think tanks, including the Roosevelt Institute, the AFL-CIO and the Economic Policy Institute. The campaign is led by the Center for Popular Democracy.

The group is also slated to release a report touting the economic benefits of an economy at full employment, which it pegged at a jobless rate of 4 percent -- significantly lower than the Fed’s estimate of about 5 to 5.2 percent. The lower rate would amount to 14.3 million more jobs, boost the economy by $1.3 trillion and generate an additional $261 billion in tax revenue, according to the analysis by PolicyLink and the Program for Environmental and Regional Equity at the University of Southern California.

True full employment, the report argues, would translate into a much lower jobless rate among minorities. The study estimated the impact of a 4 percent unemployment rate for every gender and racial group, adjusted for disparities in age. Black households, for example, would see their income jump by 23 percent, from $37,025 to $45,568. While Fed policy is not going to be the only solution to getting to full employment for all, we see it as a critical component of a broad policy agenda,” said Sarah Treuhaft, a director at PolicyLink. “We know that we need more growth and we need more jobs to stimulate hiring of people who have been left behind.”

Treuhaft said that the report does not estimate what inflation would be under this scenario but pointed out that it remained relatively stable in 2000, the last time the labor market hovered around full employment. But many analysts believe that a 4 percent jobless rate would cause the economy to overheat and inflation to spike. And some economists -- including a vocal minority within the Fed -- believe the central bank is already in the danger zone.

Those groups are also taking their message to Jackson Hole in hopes of bending the ear of policymakers ahead of their crucial decision in September. The conservative American Principles Project is staging a conference in the shadows of the Grand Tetons that coincides with the Fed’s gathering. The group has been skeptical of the benefits of the Fed’s easy-money stance and the reach of its powers, Several members have called on the central bank to rely on prescribed rules for conducting monetary policy, a recommendation the Fed has opposed.

Steve Lonegan, director of monetary policy at APP, said the group hopes its conference will reinvigorate the public conversation about monetary policy, which he argues deserves as much attention among conservatives as cutting taxes and reducing regulations.

“This is a recent phenomenon that Americans are disconnected from the value of their money. It’s the third leg of an economic growth plan for America,” Lonegan said. “It’s their savings. It’s their wages. It’s their life’s work.”

The Jackson Hole conferences will take place Aug. 27 to 29. The theme of the official Fed meeting this year is inflation. The central bank has set a 2 percent target for price-level increases, but it has consistently undershot that goal in recent years and wage growth has been stagnant

The Fed Up campaign has called on the Fed to set a target for wage growth as well. It is also calling for reforms of the selection process for presidents and boards of directors at the Fed’s 12 regional banks.

Source: Washington Post